Super Bowl bound? The numbers behind Saints’ historic start

Starting the season 2-0 is one thing, but the New Orleans Saints have dominated in both wins. It’s only the first two weeks of a long season, and it’s very easy to overreact. But for a team that wasn’t even projected to make the playoffs, the numbers are shocking.

For starters, New Orleans has scored 91 points in its first two games. The only other teams who’ve scored at least 90 points in the first two games of the season since the NFL-AFL merger (1970) are the 1971 Dallas Cowboys (91) and 2009 New Orleans Saints (93).

Both those teams won the Super Bowl.

Not to mention that the 1971 Cowboys’ point differential was 47 points, the 2009 Saints was 44. This year’s Saints team outscored their first two opponents by 62 points. Only two other teams have scored over 60 points so far this season. New Orleans could’ve scored more points, too. The Saints have taken out their starters in both games because of the score difference.

Derek Carr has run the offense nearly perfectly and is in line for a career year if he keeps it up. He’s tied for a league-best five touchdown passes and also has the highest yards per pass attempt. His 11.4 yards per attempt is almost two more than the next closest quarterback (Baker Mayfield, 9.7). For reference, Brock Purdy had 9.6 yards per attempt last season, which was the third-best mark since the merger.

New Orleans (probably) won’t score 40-plus points in every game this season. But who was on that offensive staff when Purdy had 9.6 yards per attempt last year? Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.

Play action and pre-snap motion have been two of the biggest changes for this Saints offense compared with last year. After using play action 14.4% of the time (least in the NFL) last season, New Orleans has run play action on 52.3% of its passing plays in the first two games this season (most in the NFL). The team also was 2-0 last season, but Carr had one touchdown and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt in the Saints’ first two games.

New Orleans’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or efficiency on every play (further explained here), is the fourth-highest of all time during a team’s first two games, according to Aaron Schatz. Each of the top nine teams in that category made the playoffs that season.

In a year in which passing touchdowns are historically low, Carr and the Saints’ offense have thrived. There are still 15 more games, but it’s about as perfect a start that a team could ask for.