The Houston Texans (7-4) return to NRG Stadium on Sunday for the first of two meetings with the Tennessee Titans (2-8), who sit a half-game ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars for third place in the AFC South.
If Houston can win Sunday and then the following week on the road in Jacksonville, it will enter the bye week at 9-4. Meanwhile, Tennessee is continuing its rebuild that began last offseason when it fired longtime head coach Mike Vrabel.
Houston has won three straight against Tennessee, including a pivotal overtime victory a year ago with Case Keenum as QB1. On Sunday, C.J. Stroud will be the one looking to build positive momentum in the season’s final stretch.
Below are five keys to victory for beating the former Oilers that played next door at the Astrodome.
Oct 13, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) celebrates with defensive tackle Tim Settle Jr. (98) after a sack against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
Since rejoining the Titans’ starting lineup in Week 10, Will Levis has improved his play compared to early in the season. In the past two games, he’s completed 64.8% of passes for 470 yards with three touchdowns and just one interception.
Levis struggled early on with poor decisions, with Pro Football Focus charting 4.4% turnover-worthy plays, the eighth-highest percentage, from Weeks 1 to 6. In the past two weeks, that number has sat at 2.6%, and he’s increased his big-time throw percentage from 1.5% to 8.5%. However, sacks remain an issue for Levis.
#Titans QB Will Levis on if he’s seen any improvement since returning from injury: “I haven’t thrown the ball underhand or chest-passed it, so that’s an improvement.” 😂pic.twitter.com/7lOcXqlsIO
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 21, 2024
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Tennessee has allowed 12 sacks the past two weeks, and part of it is on Levis. He holds onto the ball too long and often tries to make plays when they are not there. Will Anderson Jr. may return to the lineup, which would pair him with a red-hot Danielle Hunter, as the Texans look to get after Tennessee’s quarterback.
The Titans passer sees a steep drop off when experiencing pressure, posting a 45 quarterback rating and throwing four interceptions to just one touchdown.
Nov 18, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon (28) celebrates with Houston Texans center Juice Scruggs (70) and Houston Texans guard Shaq Mason (69) after scoring a touchdown during the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
While Tennessee does not have the strongest pass rush—with 20 sacks, the seventh-fewest in the league—it does roster two strong interior pass rushers: Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat.
Texans HC DeMeco Ryans also asked today about the defense for Houston’s upcoming opponent this week-the Tennessee Titans:
“With Tennessee their defense, it stands out starting up front with [DT Jeffery] Simmons & [DT T’Vondre] Sweat, two big players that are hard to move. They… pic.twitter.com/ykssiZJ56m
— Tyler Milner (@tmilrealdeal) November 21, 2024
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Simmons has been one of the best interior rushers for years now, and he’s remained elite in year No. 6. Simmons recorded three sacks and two forced fumbles in nine games and has the 12th-best pressure rate among defensive tackles at 11%.
Sweat, Tennessee’s second-round pick, is off to a strong start in his pro career. He’s coming off arguably his best game, which included five tackles, one for loss and a quarterback hit. Sweat’s time to pressure of 2.99 seconds is 24th among defensive tackles with at least 150 pass rush snaps.
It’s no secret Houston has struggled to protect Stroud, especially on the interior. According to Pro Football Focus, Houston’s left guard, center, and right guard trios account for 56.5% of pressures on Stroud this season.
Nov 18, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon (28) celebrates with Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
Tennessee’s first-down defense is not bad, actually ranking near the middle of the pack in most categories. However, the Titans already ruled out L’Jarrius Sneed, and Roger McCreary was a DNP on Wednesday’s injury report.
Down their top two cornerbacks, the Titans are hurting in the coverage department. Nico Collins should be at full tilt after playing half the snaps a week ago, and Houston may have its opportunities for shots down the field.
Nico Collins’ first play back was a screen pass taken 77 yards to the house nullified by a penalty 🫠pic.twitter.com/nw5YoXjz41
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) November 19, 2024
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Tennessee’s defense already allowed the highest EPA/Pass at 0.85 in the intermediate area (10-19 yards) on first down with its top two corners. Houston loves to throw to this area of the field on 1st down and Stroud is one of the best in the league at hunting intermediate windows, which may help Houston look like the offense it was last season.
Sep 15, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (24) reacts after a play during the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
To say Derek Stingley Jr. is playing well would be an understatement. In the last month, he’s looked like one of, if not the NFL’s best, cornerbacks. Over four games, he’s been targeted 20 times, allowing five catches for 41 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, culminating in an opposing passer rating of 18.75, the lowest in the league.
Since Tennessee traded DeAndre Hopkins last month, Calvin Ridley has played at an All-Pro level. In four games without Hopkins, he has 38 targets, 24 receptions, 358 yards and two touchdowns.
Houston may opt to let Stingley cover Ridley the whole game to quiet the veteran receiver.
Asked DeMeco Ryans about the trust Derek Stingley has earned to follow the opposing team’s No. 1 receiver. #HTownMade pic.twitter.com/Tp9YPIsAWi
— Landry Locker (@LandryLocker) November 20, 2024
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DeMeco Ryans said Stingley traveled with CeeDee Lamb on Monday, which is partially true. He covered Lamb on 19 routes, allowing two catches for 17 yards. However, Stingley did not switch sides to follow Lamb. Stingley did travel with Amari Cooper in the playoffs last year, shutting down Cleveland’s top option.
Aug 17, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; New York Giants running back Devin Singletary (26) is tackled by Houston Texans safety Jalen Pitre (5) in the first quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
To ease the pressure off of Levis, Tennessee will try to run the ball with its combination of Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard. Spears did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and was on the injury report with a concussion.
In the three games Spears missed this season, Pollard carried the ball 64 times for 283 yards, adding eight receptions for 53 yards. He’ll likely be looking at the workhorse role that he’s played the last year and a half with Tennessee and Dallas.
Cool Tony Pollard touchdown that sadly didn’t count due to a hold pic.twitter.com/58j3pFeC0q
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 4, 2024
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Pollard ranks second in the NFL with 3.9 yards after contact. Houston’s defensive backs must tackle him because over 58% of the Titans’ runs go outside the tackles.
Eric Murray and Calen Bullock rank in the top 10 in missed tackle percentage among safeties. Meanwhile, Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre, and Stingley have missed tackle percentages north of 10.
Tennessee also uses Levis in the run game, and at 6’4 and 230 pounds, he’s no small load to bring down.
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